Uri Attack: Challenge the Pakistani's assumption

Pakistan's attack at brigade headquarter in Uri has shown once again failure of India to deal with the enemy carrying out an asymmetrical warfare. In an asymmetrical warfare the advantage lies with the enemy because it chooses the time, place and nature of attack. Dealing reactively to such attack reduces the element of surprise and also brings international pressure to toe the "peace" line.  So, going against the current narrative of avenging our martyrs militarily India's reaction should be well planned, slow & cold which at the same time should challenge the present assumption the enemy takes in to consideration while plotting attack against us.

Assumption 1 : India will not retaliate militarily- A long history of peacefulness and restraint has led to a thinking that India at no cost will confront the enemy face to face. Also a section of media believes that it could be used by the enemy to internationalize the Kashmir issue. Let truth be told, Pakistan can cause no more harm then what we have currently inflicted on ourselves by not acting against it. While India is becoming stronger the global community now understands the Indian narrative and looks down upon Pakistan as there's rarely any terrorist activity which does not have a Pakistani stamp on it. So, internationalizing the Kashmir issue will not bring any dividends to Pakistan. More so ever with the growing proximity with America the internationalizing card has lost its relevance. 

Assumption 2 : In case on any military action India will not cross the border/LOC- Having fought nearly 4 wars with Pakistan is has been taken for granted that India will unilaterally not cross the border which emboldens the GHQ & jihadist and has made the POK a training ground for terrorist activities. If we can hunt down the NSCN(K) and KYKN in Myanmar territory who were responsible for the deadly ambush of 18 of our soldiers what stops India from surgical operation to be carried out in POK. India needs to make this statement now or in future that any strike on its military establishment is an act of war which needs to be dealt with hot pursuit. The Nuclear lobby will though not agree to it but any conventional attack cannot lead to a nuclear war like situation especially if it’s a terrorist harboring state like Pakistan and if it does India will not be alone in nipping the Pakistani's nuclear butt. 

Assumption 3 : India would not derail its economic engines by waging a war- Though Its completely understood that no country would like to derail its economic progress by waging a war what startles me is Pakistan knows that it cannot afford another war so it lets the Kashmir on the boil by jihadist/sleeper cells & stone pelters. Why cannot India be on offensive front by taking down the Pakistani ecosystem in India? Hurriyat's are given security, travel allowances to spew venom against India. Why can't covert operations against Syed Salahuddin, Masood Azhar & Hafiz Saeed be carried out? This would be below the war threshold and would make the enemy pay for the price of waging war against India.

India is at a defining moment of its future. It aspires to be a strong player on global platform. Every action/inaction will show the world its determination. We cannot expect the world to fight our battles. Its high time we start going beyond the "kadi ninda" the 28 plus years of asymmetrical warfare has left a deep scar in our psyche. It’s time to avenge our warriors.

Canadian Financial Crisis and Road Ahead.....

The strength of financially sound and resource rich Canada are being tested by the global turmoil. Canada is a perfect example to the world so as to what happens when all your eggs are in one basket. A glance at the  top 5 exporters of Canadian goods, US takes the top pace with a whopping 62% of total exports flowing in to the country. This is followed by China which has 7% share, Japan with-4%share, UK-3% and Mexico-2%. On leaving aside US exports for the month of August where we saw a 6.3% net increase MOM (the biggest we have seen since December 2006), the overall picture remains gloomy.

The Oil prices have fallen down to $38 per barrel making the matter worse for the 5th largest oil producer.  Moreover there seems to be no respite from the tumbling down of crude. This has been the 5th successive month for the Canadian economy to have registered a negative growth If we see the 6th month heading in the similar direction of plummeting growth, Canada might find itself in a tight spot. Moreover, the geopolitics affairs are also not turning out to be pleasant. We are witnessing Iran mending its fences and in all likelihood might get a good opportunity of export restrictions being taken off. This will lead to an extra million barrel of crude oil on the wrong side of equation.This may be unpleasant sight for an oil producing country like Canada.

The resilience of Canadian economy is being tested by the Global market forces as well.The decision of China to devalue its currency to improve its competitiveness has resulted in meltdown of 8.5% of its stock market , which has set off a stock market carnage all across the globe. The DOW Jones industrial average fell 1000 points before recovering from the day’s low and closed at 15,797 on 24th Aug. While the appetite of china to consume global commodity has been on decline for quite some time, what is more worrisome is the current scenario which isn’t likely to change soon.

While all may not be well in Asia and Europe, Mexico is also turning out to be a major competitor for Canada in terms of export to USA. Mexico has lately become a more favored destination for Non-oil US imports. Even the depreciation of Canadian dollar by 21% in last two years hasn’t been of much help. The candle is burning from both ends. Oil on one and Mexico becoming an attractive destination for low priced non oil US imports.

Canada has to factor in these developments and look out for avenues beyond Energy, Materials and Finances which accounts for 70% TSX Composite Index. With the technology sector transforming the future of countries like the USA it presents itself an opportunity to focus on such avenues so as  not to be left behind in the era which might bring prosperity fueled by technology. With the federal election due in October, it might be interesting to see how leaders pitch for technological capabilities to be developed in-house and towards transforming the economy from a commodity market to a technological powerhouse.